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The Arctic’s rapid sea ice decline may influence global weather patterns, making the understanding of Arctic weather variability (WV) vital for accurate weather forecasting and analyzing extreme weather events. Quantifying this WV and its impacts under human-induced climate change remains a challenge. Here we develop a complexity-based approach and discover a strong statistical correlation between intraseasonal WV in the Arctic and the Arctic Oscillation. Our findings highlight an increased variability in daily Arctic sea ice, attributed to its decline accelerated by global warming. This weather instability can influence broader regional patterns via atmospheric teleconnections, elevating risks to human activities and weather forecast predictability. Our analyses reveal these teleconnections and a positive feedback loop between Arctic and global weather instabilities, offering insights into how Arctic changes affect global weather. This framework bridges complexity science, Arctic WV, and its widespread implications.

 

Wildfires, which are a natural part of the boreal ecosystem in Alaska, have recently increased in frequency and size. Environmental conditions (high temperature, low precipitation, and frequent lightning events) are becoming favorable for severe fire events. Fire releases greenhouse gasses such as carbon dioxide into the environment, creating a positive feedback loop for warming. Needleleaf species are the dominant vegetation in boreal Alaska and are highly flammable. They burn much faster due to the presence of resin, and their low-lying canopy structure facilitates the spread of fire from the ground to the canopy. Knowing the needleleaf vegetation distribution is crucial for better forest and wildfire management practices. Our study focuses on needleleaf fraction mapping using a well-documented spectral unmixing approach: multiple endmember spectral mixture analysis (MESMA). We used an AVIRIS-NG image (5 m), upscaled it to 10 m and 30 m spatial resolutions, and applied MESMA to all three images to assess the impact of spatial resolution on sub-pixel needleleaf fraction estimates. We tested a novel method to validate the fraction maps using field data and a high-resolution classified hyperspectral image. Our validation method produced needleleaf cover fraction estimates with accuracies of 73%, 79%, and 78% for 5 m, 10 m, and 30 m image data, respectively. To determine whether these accuracies varied significantly across different spatial scales, we used the McNemar statistical test and found no significant differences between the accuracies. The findings of this study enhance the toolset available to fire managers to manage wildfire and for understanding changes in forest demography in the boreal region of Alaska across the high-to-moderate resolution scale. 

Abstract Some of the largest climatic changes in the Arctic have been observed in Alaska and the surrounding marginal seas. Near-surface air temperature (T2m), precipitation ( P ), snowfall, and sea ice changes have been previously documented, often in disparate studies. Here, we provide an updated, long-term trend analysis (1957–2021; n = 65 years) of such parameters in ERA5, NOAA U.S. Climate Gridded Dataset (NClimGrid), NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Alaska climate division, and composite sea ice products preceding the upcoming Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) and other near-future climate reports. In the past half century, annual T2m has broadly increased across Alaska, and during winter, spring, and autumn on the North Slope and North Panhandle (T2m > 0.50°C decade −1 ). Precipitation has also increased across climate divisions and appears strongly interrelated with temperature–sea ice feedbacks on the North Slope, specifically with increased (decreased) open water (sea ice extent). Snowfall equivalent (SFE) has decreased in autumn and spring, perhaps aligned with a regime transition of snow to rain, while winter SFE has broadly increased across the state. Sea ice decline and melt-season lengthening also have a pronounced signal around Alaska, with the largest trends in these parameters found in the Beaufort Sea. Alaska’s climatic changes are also placed in context against regional and contiguous U.S. air temperature trends and show ∼50% greater warming in Alaska relative to the lower-48 states. Alaska T2m increases also exceed those of any contiguous U.S. subregion, positioning Alaska at the forefront of U.S. climate warming. Significance Statement This study produces an updated, long-term trend analysis (1957–2021) of key Alaska climate parameters, including air temperature, precipitation (including snowfall equivalent), and sea ice, to inform upcoming climate assessment reports, including the Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) scheduled for publication in 2023. Key findings include widespread annual and seasonal warming with increased precipitation across much of the state. Winter snowfall has broadly increased, but spring and autumn snowfalls have decreased as rainfall increased. Autumn warming and precipitation increases over the North Slope, in particular, appear related to decreased sea ice coverage in the Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Seas. These trends may result from interrelated processes that accelerate Alaska climate changes relative to those of the contiguous United States. 

Climate change impacts the electric power system by affecting both the load and generation. It is paramount to understand this impact in the context of renewable energy as their market share has increased and will continue to grow. This study investigates the impact of climate change on the supply of renewable energy through applying novel metrics of intermittency, power production and storage required by the renewable energy plants as a function of historical climate data variability. Here we focus on and compare two disparate locations, Palma de Mallorca in the Balearic Islands and Cordova, Alaska. The main results of this analysis of wind, solar radiation and precipitation over the 1950–2020 period show that climate change impacts both the total supply available and its variability. Importantly, this impact is found to vary significantly with location. This analysis demonstrates the feasibility of a process to evaluate the local optimal mix of renewables, the changing needs for energy storage as well as the ability to evaluate the impact on grid reliability regarding both penetration of the increasing renewable resources and changes in the variability of the resource. This framework can be used to quantify the impact on both transmission grids and microgrids and can guide possible mitigation paths. 

Increased Arctic air temperatures and evaporative fluxes have coincided with more frequent and destructive high‐latitude wildfires. Arctic fires impact ecosystems and people, especially at the community‐level by degrading air quality, destroying agriculture, and threatening life and property. Central Eastern Interior (CEI) Alaska is one such region that has recently experienced the effects of wildfire activity related to warming air temperatures. To improve our ability to identify fire weather events and assess their potential for extreme outbreaks at actionable lead times relevant to fire weather forecasters and managers, new metrics and approaches need to be established and applied toward understanding the physical mechanisms underlying such wildland fire characteristics. Our study uses a new, regional atmospheric circulation metric, the Alaska Blocking Index (ABI), to describe midtropospheric air pressure around Alaska, which is subsequently related to CEI fire weather conditions at the Predictive Service Area (PSA) scale in climatological and extreme events frameworks. Of note, during years of high fire activity, Build‐Up Index (BUI) values tend to be anomalously high during the duff and drought phases across the CEI PSAs, though comparatively lower BUI values are still associated with high fire activity in the Tanana Zone‐South (AK03S) PSA. Likewise, extreme BUI values are strongly tied to high ABI values and well‐defined upper‐air ridging circulation patterns in the duff and drought periods. The statistical skill of mean daily ABI values in the 6–10 day period preceding extreme duff period BUI values is modest (τ² > 14%) in the Upper Yukon Valley (AK02) PSA, a hotbed of wildland fire activity. Extremes in ABI and CEI BUI often occur in tandem, yielding regional predictability of upper‐air weather patterns and extremes and underlying surface weather conditions, by statistical and/or dynamical forecast models, imperative for local community and governmental organizations to effectively manage and allocate Alaska's fire weather resources.

 

In recent years, there have been rapid improvements in both remote sensing methods and satellite image availability that have the potential to massively improve burn severity assessments of the Alaskan boreal forest. In this study, we utilized recent pre- and post-fire Sentinel-2 satellite imagery of the 2019 Nugget Creek and Shovel Creek burn scars located in Interior Alaska to both assess burn severity across the burn scars and test the effectiveness of several remote sensing methods for generating accurate map products: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR), and Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) supervised classification. We used 52 Composite Burn Index (CBI) plots from the Shovel Creek burn scar and 28 from the Nugget Creek burn scar for training classifiers and product validation. For the Shovel Creek burn scar, the RF and SVM machine learning (ML) classification methods outperformed the traditional spectral indices that use linear regression to separate burn severity classes (RF and SVM accuracy, 83.33%, versus NBR accuracy, 73.08%). However, for the Nugget Creek burn scar, the NDVI product (accuracy: 96%) outperformed the other indices and ML classifiers. In this study, we demonstrated that when sufficient ground truth data is available, the ML classifiers can be very effective for reliable mapping of burn severity in the Alaskan boreal forest. Since the performance of ML classifiers are dependent on the quantity of ground truth data, when sufficient ground truth data is available, the ML classification methods would be better at assessing burn severity, whereas with limited ground truth data the traditional spectral indices would be better suited. We also looked at the relationship between burn severity, fuel type, and topography (aspect and slope) and found that the relationship is site-dependent. 

Alaska has witnessed a significant increase in wildfire events in recent decades that have been linked to drier and warmer summers. Forest fuel maps play a vital role in wildfire management and risk assessment. Freely available multispectral datasets are widely used for land use and land cover mapping, but they have limited utility for fuel mapping due to their coarse spectral resolution. Hyperspectral datasets have a high spectral resolution, ideal for detailed fuel mapping, but they are limited and expensive to acquire. This study simulates hyperspectral data from Sentinel-2 multispectral data using the spectral response function of the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer-Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) sensor, and normalized ground spectra of gravel, birch, and spruce. We used the Uniform Pattern Decomposition Method (UPDM) for spectral unmixing, which is a sensor-independent method, where each pixel is expressed as the linear sum of standard reference spectra. The simulated hyperspectral data have spectral characteristics of AVIRIS-NG and the reflectance properties of Sentinel-2 data. We validated the simulated spectra by visually and statistically comparing it with real AVIRIS-NG data. We observed a high correlation between the spectra of tree classes collected from AVIRIS-NG and simulated hyperspectral data. Upon performing species level classification, we achieved a classification accuracy of 89% for the simulated hyperspectral data, which is better than the accuracy of Sentinel-2 data (77.8%). We generated a fuel map from the simulated hyperspectral image using the Random Forest classifier. Our study demonstrated that low-cost and high-quality hyperspectral data can be generated from Sentinel-2 data using UPDM for improved land cover and vegetation mapping in the boreal forest.